The other 'I' word...
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By Gegner
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May 16th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
The word on everyone’s lips is ‘inflation’, that ‘evil’ beast that relentlessly saps your purchasing power.
What’s become apparent is; like the purpose of money, few understand what ‘drives’ inflation.
This manifests itself when we confuse rising prices with inflation. Rising prices are (normally) the result of increased demand…although there is nothing that says prices won’t rise as capitalists act to increase their margins (profits for themselves.)
Inflation is strictly a ‘monetary’ phenomenon, which causes prices to rise in ‘response’ to the ‘dilution’ of money’s value.
So, on the surface, the solution is simple…stop printing money and it will stop sinking in value!
Except we have other ‘forces’ at work, money that is/has been conjured into existence by entities other than the ‘central bank’. read more »
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The gathering gloom...
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By Gegner
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May 15th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
In tonight’s offering we explore the reality behind our politician’s disingenuous claims that ‘more education’ is the balm that will solve all of our economic woes…
Inhospitable Job Market to Greet College Graduates
By Lawrence Mishel and Elise GouldThis month’s crop of new college graduates will confront a more inhospitable job market than their predecessors faced in 2001, the beginning of the last recession. read more »
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The Shape Of Things To Come?
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May 14th, 2008
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Babylon Has Fallen
I probably ought to know better than to try my hand at predictions with only a cracked and cloudy crystal ball to guide me. Still, the signs and portents for Election Day 2008 all seem to be so positive, so upbeat that I can scarcely countenance what I'm seeing. And, like Fox Mulder, I really do want to believe. Furthermore, if you were around during the run-up to the midterms in 2006, you'll recall that I DID manage to get a few things right back then; despite the Biblically ominous name of this blog, I'm actually pretty cheerful and optimistic.
So here goes... read more »
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The 'poison' spreads...
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By Gegner
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May 14th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
As I have often pointed out in the past, our society/civilization/life as we have come to know it relies on ‘cash flow’.
Which is to say we call enterprises that experience insufficient cash flow by a different name, we call them ‘bankrupt’…
Which leads us to tonight’s offering: [Hat tip naked capitalism ]
The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 12:59am BST 13/05/2008The avalanche of bankruptcies has begun. Six US companies of substance have defaulted on bonds over the past fortnight*, [*two weeks] against 17 for the whole of last year.
As a "non-believer" in the instant rebound story, I am not easily shocked by gloomy reports. But the latest note by Standard & Poor's - read more »
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A new Epoch or a flash in the pan?
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By Gegner
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May 13th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
Understandably, it is difficult to get worked up over the ‘same old, same old’, which like peeling an onion, reveals only more onion…
OTOH, tonight’s offering sheds new light on precisely ‘why’ everything costs more…
Which is perhaps the way of it, the message needs to be repeated in many different ways until everybody ‘gets it’.
Shall we?
A new inflationary epoch
Commentary and weekly watch by Doug NolandCrude oil closed on Friday above US$126. The most vitally important commodity in the world has now posted a stunning year-to-date rise of better than 30% and has now doubled in the past year. It is worth noting that during the 10-year period 1996 through 2005 crude averaged about $29 a barrel. It's now at four times this level - and running. read more »
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Pressure Points Live: May 10, 2008, AM 1460 Jacksonville Hour One
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May 11th, 2008
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Hillary talks about "hard working white folks" -- and we come up with the silver bullet against that canard. Plus a new long distance listener, Aaron from Iowa, calls.
CG Comment Line: 206-350-0381
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Pressure Points Live: May 10, 2008, AM 1460 Jacksonville Hour Two
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May 11th, 2008
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McCain gets caught talking about how much "better off" everybody is. Plus a short primer on progressive economics.
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Kool Aid
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By Gegner
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May 11th, 2008
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Greeting good citizen,
In this far from perfect world, one often finds themselves playing the hand they’re dealt
A Peek Behind the Price at the Pump
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ
Published: May 11, 2008FROM Capitol Hill to Wall Street to the campaign trail, the recent surge in oil prices is quickly threatening to supplant the mortgage crisis as the country’s leading economic issue. Last week, prices for crude set another record, finishing at $125.96 a barrel on Friday, while gasoline prices closed in on $4 a gallon.
But even as the presidential candidates debate whether to cut federal gas taxes this summer and legislators look at other ways to ease prices at the pump, a harder-to-control factor is emerging as a main reason behind the increase in energy costs: the sinking dollar. read more »
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Recovery
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By Gegner
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May 11th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
tonight’s offering tackles the issue of ‘economic recovery’ when ‘fundamentals’ don’t support the claims.
[clipped from Bonddad’s post]
To say that Wall Street is expecting a second-half recovery would be an understatement. According to Thomson Reuters research, analysts are expecting fourth-quarter earnings growth of 62 percent for the S&P 500. Granted, that is a comparison with a disastrous fourth quarter of 2007, when earnings were down some 25 percent. In the current quarter, S&P 500 earnings are expected to be down 6 percent.
Not only is the market anticipating a swift recovery, but the earnings forecasts suggest that they think it will be lasting. For next year, analysts think earnings will be up 18 percent, twice the growth they are predicting for 2008. read more »
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The end of days
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By Gegner
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May 9th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
The ‘price at the pump’ jumped another nickel this week while the price per barrel tacked on another $10.00 from it’s most recent low.
Which is really somewhat bizarre given how stockpiles are full to the brim…yet the pundits still insist the price increases are due to ‘fundamentals’ rather than ‘speculation’…
Oil Surpasses $125 Per Barrel as Dollar Weakens
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: May 9, 2008Filed at 2:50 p.m. ET read more »
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Sub-human
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By Gegner
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May 9th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
Rather hectic day today but Thursdays are always ‘difficult’ for reasons best left unsaid…
Which is to point out that ‘technically’ it’s Friday at this point in the game, oh well.
Tonight’s offering was lifted from the NY Times:
Questions of Rent Tactics by Private Equity
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: May 9, 2008Private investment firms have been amassing what may seem like unusual stakes in New York real estate: they have bought hundreds of apartment buildings with thousands of rent-regulated units across the city that produce decidedly meager returns. read more »
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Happy, Happy, Joy -Joy....
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By Gegner
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May 8th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
The ‘theme’ of tonight’s offering is ‘happy talk’ , where we take a closer look behind today’s most ‘optimistic’ headlines…
Productivity Rises in First Quarter
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: May 7, 2008Filed at 11:56 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Worker productivity rose by a better-than-expected amount in the first three months of the year while labor cost pressures eased.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that productivity, the amount of output per hour of work, increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter. That was slightly higher than the 1.5 percent increase which had been expected. read more »
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Ugh!
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By Gegner
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May 7th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
Plans to shrink the US economy to where it can be drown in a bathtub a rather shallow puddle, proceed apace…as you can tell by the stock market’s closing higher today on truly hellacious news…
US April Business Bankruptcy Filings Increase 49% (Update2)
By Bill Rochelle and Bob Willis [hat tip: naked capitalism]May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Business bankruptcy filings in the U.S. increased 49 percent in April from a year earlier, the biggest gain so far in 2008, as the slowing economy prompted more companies to shut down.
Business petitions rose to 5,173 during the month, according to statistics compiled from court records by Jupiter eSources LLC in Oklahoma City. Total bankruptcy filings, including those by individuals, were up 31 percent from a year earlier to 93,096, the group said. read more »
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Cannibalism
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By Gegner
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May 6th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
I was hesitant to stick to the ‘program’ tonight as this Credit Bubble Bulletin is far and away more ‘wonkish’ than the last…
That said, I decided to persevere because this piece focuses on the ‘crux’ of the problem. If you can read between the lines of economic gobbledegook, Mr. Noland reveals that the financial economy has replaced the ‘real’ one and that no amount of jiggering by the Fed or the government is capable of fixing this ultimately fatal situation…
So we begin:
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
More than one step backwards
Commentary and market watch by Doug Noland read more »Bookmark/Search this post with:
Ignore this
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By Gegner
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May 4th, 2008
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Greetings good citizen,
Gnawing at the back of my mind has been two issues, one being how we ‘arrived’ where we are today and the other being what ‘we’ are going to ‘do’ about it.
Understand that nothing is currently ‘on the table’ as far as ‘fixing’ our pressing economic problems. The Fed can perform all the gyrations it likes but there is nothing our central bank can do to put our economy ‘back on track’.
While it is true that they could keep shelling out an endless stream of ‘stimulus checks’, if the issue of our feeble capacity to fend for ourselves is not addressed, we will all soon be forced to develop an appetite for ‘paper’. (Since the checks will soon be useless as far as purchasing what we need, we’ll literally be reduced to eating them.)
As I have stated repeatedly in the past, the answer to the first question (how we got here?) lies in the answer to another question ‘what is the purpose of commerce?’ read more »
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Pressure Points Live: May 3, 2008, AM 1460 Jacksonville Hour One
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May 4th, 2008
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Special guest Bill Harrell, a distinguished Jacksonville trial attorney, discusses tort reform and its relationship to the overall corporate Republican agenda.
CG Comment Line: 206-350-0381
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